Monte Carlo Simulation For Project Schedule Probability Analysis Using Excel

  Akshay Bhaskar Bagal,  Dr. Sumant K Kulkarni

In this competitive world, with limited resources, cost and time in project management is paid increasing attention. For any kind of project, schedule is essential for successful execution of the project, so the management of schedule is very critical. It is observed that important risk about the construction schedule is time duration risk. Duration risk means the possibility and loss of incompletion of project in the stipulated duration limit. So it is necessary to analyze the Duration of project for which we can use Monte Carlo simulation. For entire project the probability of each work is determined using program evaluation and review technique [PERT] and normal distribution (using area under the curve). On the basis of probability obtained from PERT analysis (Normal or Beta distribution) it simulates the project’s duration and analyses the probability of construction schedule by Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the duration for each activity and also the overall project to accurately determine the project completion probability under considering of the changeability and randomness of duration for each activity.

Keywords- PERT, Normal or Beta distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation

Unique Identification Number - IJEDR1903041
Page Number(s) - 242-252
Pubished in - Volume 7 | Issue 3 | July 2019
DOI (Digital Object Identifier) -   
Publisher - IJEDR (ISSN - 2321-9939)

  Akshay Bhaskar Bagal,  Dr. Sumant K Kulkarni,   "Monte Carlo Simulation For Project Schedule Probability Analysis Using Excel", International Journal of Engineering Development and Research (IJEDR), ISSN:2321-9939, Volume.7, Issue 3, pp.242-252, July 2019, Available at :http://www.ijedr.org/papers/IJEDR1903041.pdf